The seeds of lockdown were sown 300 million years ago
How does geology affect what tier of lockdown you’re in?
On the 2nd of December, England will exit a far-reaching “circuit-breaker” national lockdown and re-enter a local tiered system for virus prevention. The level of lockdown that you’ve been placed into isn’t entirely dependent upon local numbers, as the financial times is reporting:
The newspapers very quickly noted the apparent Northern bias of restrictions.
The government has set out five key tests[ref] that determine what tier a region is placed into:
- case detection rate
- how quickly case rates are rising or falling
- positivity in the general population
- pressure on the NHS
- local context
These seem reasonable, so why does the northern bias exist?
Geology
I’ll admit it’s not a 1:1 perfect map, but why do so many of the areas with higher restrictions exist near to coalfields?
I live in the North East of England. There are dozens of small pit-towns (located around a previous coal mine) near me. After producing trillions of pounds in wealth for the country, all of the old pits were shut down, and jobs lost.
“give me a million tons of coal and I’ll give you a foreign policy”
-Ernest Bevin
Ex-industrial areas of England have been failed by successive governments of all creeds. Jobs were not replaced successfully, and social mobility has been extremely limited.
Deprivation
People living in more deprived areas have experienced COVID-19 mortality rates more than double those living in less deprived areas
- Nick Stripe, Head of Health Analysis, Office for National Statistics
Why is this? People living in the most deprived areas have more comorbidities, higher indices of disability, and are more likely to smoke and be obese. All of these are risk factors for mortality from COVID-19.
This means that the hospital admission rate and pressure on local services is higher, even before COVID. More patients with COVID will require admission, and those who do will need longer stays.
Health infrastructure
Spending on primary care is higher per person in London and rural areas [ref]. This essential aspect of the funding of the NHS, based upon a flawed formula, means that GPs have fewer funds to support their patients (with more complex needs) in their own home.
Working habits
The concentration of skilled jobs into the south-east has meant more people can work from home. If you do need to go to work, you can travel on a frequent, generally reliable train, thanks to transport spending of £903/person, compared to the north’s £376/person which means you might have to travel by infrequent, overly crowded bus.
Summary
Lets be clear- I support local restrictions. They are an appropriate way to balance reducing virus numbers while preserving jobs on a larger basis. But areas that are most restricted must also be most supported, and at present they are not. If we leave the industrial centres behind, then we are preparing for disaster in the potential pandemics of 2040,2060,2080.
